Future developments in the Swiss property market
Die Einwohnerzahl der Schweiz dürfte bis Mitte der 2030er-Jahre um eine weitere Million ansteigen. Für die Haushalte bedingt das erstmals seit 70 Jahren eine Einschränkung des Wohnkonsums, denn kumuliert fehlen bis dann mindestens 150 000 Wohnungen. Wohnrenditeliegenschaften haben das Potenzial für solide Wertsteigerungen. Verschärfte Mietrechtsregulierungen könnten die Preis-Bonanza jedoch bremsen.
Switzerland’s permanent resident population will break the 9 million barrier in the first half of 2024. The “magic” 10 million mark should then be reached by the mid-2030s. This additional million is likely to set new records: Never before has the resident population increased so quickly. Never before has a million-strong increase been driven so strongly by international migration and at the same time accompanied by so little construction activity.
The creation of more than enough living space and a massive expansion of the transport infrastructure have been responsible for the fact that rents have risen significantly less than wages since Switzerland’s 5 million population in 1955. What has been true over the last 70 years – falling housing costs, greater consumption of space per person and more comfortable living – is now likely to be a thing of the past. This is because the cumulative shortfall of at least 150,000 flats by 2034 due to the slowdown in construction activity is likely to keep the consumption of living space stable.
Prices and rents outpace wage growth
Rents are therefore likely to rise faster than incomes in the coming years. Rents on offer could increase by a total of 25 to 30 per cent in real terms by the mid-2030s – comparable to the trend between 2002 and 2012. In contrast to the last 70 years, rents in city centres are also likely to rise more strongly than in the periphery due to the high level of immigration.
Residential property prices – both for owner-occupied homes and apartment blocks – are also expected to rise faster than incomes, with interest rates remaining moderate overall. On the one hand, prime locations will remain in disproportionately high demand as a result of growth. On the other hand, the “suburbs” of the major centres will increasingly expand into the previously extended agglomerations, which will also increase the willingness to pay there. Residential property therefore has the potential to match or even exceed past increases in value.
Golden age with reservations
However, dreams of high increases in value due to rising rents could quickly turn out to be an illusion. If the housing situation of many households deteriorates, politicians could burden the market with additional regulations. In such a scenario, construction activity could fall even further and households would have to move even closer together. The long-term losers would also be the building fabric and sustainability due to a lack of incentives for comprehensive and energy-efficient renovations.