Global real estate as a strategic opportunity – new cycle imminent
Inmitten der jüngsten Marktkorrekturen aufgrund von Zinserhöhungen offenbaren globale Immobilieninvestitionen attraktive Opportunitäten mit soliden Fundamentaldaten und vielversprechenden Renditeaussichten für Anleger.
Despite the challenges posed by interest rate hikes over the past two years, the global property market remains an attractive field for investors. Although there has been a marked correction in property prices internationally, the core market segment is robust and promises attractive returns. The expectation of interest rate cuts, particularly internationally, emphasises this opportunity, especially for investors with a focus on the Swiss market, by offering a chance for improved diversification and higher returns.
The adjustment in property prices combined with a decline in transaction activity has caused valuations to fall in many markets – by up to 30%. Despite these developments, letting profiles remain stable and demand positive, with a few exceptions such as the US office sector. With interest rates expected to fall, we forecast that financing rates will return to below equity yields later this year, with property yields offering attractive spreads over government bonds.
A diversified global property portfolio offers protection against local market downturns and minimises regional risks. Property markets around the world do not move completely in sync, which presents a unique opportunity for investors to optimise their portfolio. In addition, the different duration and phase of property cycles in different markets enables strategic investment and divestment decisions.
Increasing digitalisation and the need for data centres illustrate the importance of a global approach to real estate investment in order to benefit from such emerging trends. The Swiss market alone offers little opportunity to invest in such specialised segments at an institutional level. In addition, the higher liquidity of international markets compared to the Swiss market offers advantages in terms of returns and market adaptability.
Long-term comparisons between the KGAST index for Swiss funds and the international NFI-ODCE index for US funds show a significant outperformance of US property, underlining the benefits of global diversification. In view of the impending interest rate cuts and the potential market turnaround in various international property cycles, investors have a strategically favourable time to benefit from the current market corrections and position themselves for future growth. Investing in global property therefore appears to be a wise decision to expand portfolio diversification, gain access to growth markets and benefit from attractive entry prices.