Development of the interest rate environment
This morning, the Swiss National Bank took the bull by the horns in its monetary policy decision and did the same as the European and American central banks by raising the SNB key interest rate by 75 basis points. The Swiss reference interest rate is now leaving negative territory at 0.50% and cementing the end of the historically low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the euro exchange rate floor was lifted in 2015.
The unprecedented circumstances plaguing the global economy are also weighing on Swiss households, which saw an average inflation of 3.5% in August compared to the same month last year. With an increase of 0.10 percentage points more than in the previous month, there is increasing evidence from the data basis for inflation in the remaining segments that were not directly affected by the rising commodity prices. As a result of this unintentional reversal, the perceived inflation in this country is now increasing for both producers and consumers. This perception naturally influences the price and wage negotiations and, in the event of a significant deviation from the SNB's inflation target, pours more expensive fuel into the fire.
From a monetary policy point of view, it is therefore essential to prevent a fire. The SNB will therefore not hesitate to tighten the interest rate screw further in the exercise of its main mandate – namely to ensure price stability – and also to hold it there until the inflation target of a maximum of 2% in the long term is reached. It is therefore obvious that an increase of the same amount for the coming December meeting cannot be ruled out
Development of mortgage interest rates
Inevitably, the future course of monetary policy, obedient to necessity, will weigh on the mortgage markets and ultimately also on borrowers. The zero lower limit for SARON mortgages is now redundant and the interest costs for this loan product increase significantly. Fixed-rate mortgages are also more expensive because interest rates are at their highest levels across all maturities. In addition, the interest rates for credit products are subject to strong fluctuations due to the prevailing uncertainty.
SARON mortgage forecast
As of today, the low interest rate level can only be viewed in the rear-view mirror for an indefinite period of time. Further rate hikes are imminent, although we rate a rate of 1.00% as the most likely scenario at the end of the year. What is certain is that the key interest rate will be higher next year than it is today. As long as the uncertainties on the interest rate markets dominate, mortgages will be subject to higher and volatile interest rates. If the key interest rate and thus also the SARON rate rise to 1.00% at the end of the year, the SARON mortgages will also become more expensive accordingly. We expect that mortgage holders – depending on the specified margin – will have to pay between 1.60% and 2.00% for a SARON mortgage at the end of the year.
Forecast long-term fixed-rate mortgages
On the side of long-term fixed-rate mortgages, the rise in interest rates is likely to be more modest by the end of the year, since this was expected by the market and has therefore already been priced in in recent months. While the 10-year reference interest rate was below the zero limit a year ago, it has risen to over 2% in a short space of time. A noticeable increase by the end of the year is not to be expected if the measures taken to contain inflation prove effective. For the ten-year fixed-rate mortgage, we expect mortgage interest rates to tend to move sideways, which should be between 2.80% and 3.20% by the end of the year.
recommendations
The rapid development on the mortgage market shows how quickly and devastatingly the interest rate environment can turn into troubled waters. Hence, it is highly recommended to know your options as well as risks and make a broad market comparison. Finally, a complete and clean basis of comparison from Property Captain can serve as necessary support in your financing decisions. We at Property Captain are happy to provide you with professional advice and compare offers from numerous financing partners for you.