Investment market for commercial real estate: Switzerland is an exception
Activity in the global real estate investment markets was significantly affected by the Corona crisis in 2020. The total volume of global commercial transactions between January and September 2020 was approximately $ 510 billion, a decrease of 31% from the same period last year.
Activity in the global real estate investment markets was significantly affected by the Corona crisis in 2020. The total volume of global commercial transactions between January and September 2020 was approximately $ 510 billion, a decrease of 31% from the same period last year. The greater risk aversion of investors and their wait-and-see attitude in view of the further course of the pandemic, the increased fragility of the rental markets and the problems with property inspections are responsible for this.
Still, there were signs of recovery in the third quarter (+ 23% QOQ) after hitting a ten-year low in the second quarter of 2020. This increase in transaction activity was favored by the gradual relaxation of restrictions on movement and the gradual adjustment of the players to the new market environment.
American continent hardest hit by the crisis, weaker recovery in Europe
However, the pace and extent of the upswing show clear geographical differences:
- In Asia, where health crisis management is often seen as the most effective, investor sentiment improved significantly between the second and third quarters of 2020, allowing trading volume to rise again (+ 39% QOQ).
- The American double continent, which was harder hit by the pandemic, saw slight growth again this summer, but was unable to compensate for the decline in investment volume of -44% (YOY) that had accrued up to September.
- Thanks to a record quarter in the first quarter, Europe in the first nine months of 2020 is only slightly below the level of 2019 (-11% YOY). The UK and Spain are among the countries hardest hit by the investment slowdown, while Germany has held up better. On average, however, the upswing in Europe in the third quarter of 2020 was not very pronounced (+ 9% QOQ).
Swiss investment market defies the crisis
Switzerland is the only European country that recorded an increase in trading activities in the first three quarters of 2020 (+ 5% compared to the 2015-2020 average). Although trading volumes fell slightly in certain regions during the lockdown in the second quarter, the Swiss market benefited from a catch-up effect in the third quarter. This summer, CBRE was able to process the largest single transaction in the history of the country (also the second largest in Europe this year): the sale of the Glattzentrum in Wallisellen (ZH).
Like the rental market, the Swiss real estate investment market is increasingly characterized by geographical and sectoral differentiation, which has been reinforced by the pandemic. Investor demand is more concentrated in the core cities and the housing market, while interest in logistics real estate is increasing. Indeed, the fundamentals of these segments have proven to be the strongest since the beginning of the year. In contrast, retail properties and, in some cases, office properties in secondary locations are the subject of greater caution.
The liquidity and the price structure on the Swiss real estate investment market have remained intact, as institutional investors continue to have high investment pressure. In particular, the dominance of Swiss investors in the local investment market has contributed to the high level of resilience, in contrast to countries such as the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, which are significantly more exposed to international capital flows.
While the recovery in transaction activity picked up even further at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020, there are many indications that the market will continue to be very dynamic in 2021.
